By MAXINE HERR
For the Tribune

At first glance, North Dakota appears to be gaining in population. The United States census shows the state boasting a 4.7 percent increase from 2000 to 2010 bringing the residents tally to 672, 591 — just short of the state’s peak population in 1930 of nearly 680,000. But dive into those numbers and you’ll find that 42 of the state’s 53 counties lost population.

“We have an urban migration issue and rural communities have some work to do,” said Jasper Schneider, USDA Rural Development state director.

Schneider said even before the census numbers came in, his office has worked to reverse the declining trend.

“What we’re seeing in a lot of these areas are opportunities that haven’t traditionally been there,” he said. “Some of it is because of energy and the commodity process, because we’re constantly re-investing.”

Infrastructure and growth

Two years ago, USDA Rural Development invested $100 million to upgrade broadband internet in rural areas, and Schneider believes it has already made a huge impact.

“It increases the overall attractiveness of living anywhere in North Dakota because it gives you access and connection. It takes away the digital divide we’ve traditionally had in rural America,” Schneider said.

But with the new census statistics, Schneider and his office have to work a little harder to continue to fund essential programs. Since high income averages can take counties out of the running for federal aid, counties home to wealthy farmers and mineral rights owners struggle to qualify for programs.

“There’s only so much we can do without congressional approval, but what we’ve done is sought waivers — specifically for disaster and energy impact exemptions,” Schneider said. “Energy impacted areas aren’t traditionally sought after as far as infrastructure needs, but we have been successful in getting energy exemption for housing programs in Williams County, for example. We’ve been able to do more than we would have traditionally been able to do.”

Richard Rathge has been watching North Dakota’s demographics for over 30 years. As director of the North Dakota State Data Center at North Dakota State University in Fargo, he said this latest census hit him with some surprises. For instance, of the 15 communities in North Dakota considered “urban” (population of 2,500 or more), only eight grew. Places like Jamestown, Wahpeton, Valley City and Devils Lake continue to find themselves in the minus column.

“That was somewhat surprising to me. I’m not sure what’s behind those, but we will monitor those to better understand,” Rathge said.

Rathge said the biggest controversy with the census is what the numbers say and what people actually see as they look around their communities. In cities like Fargo and Bismarck, additional housing development doesn’t always equate to more people.

“We assume that as we see more building, our population must be really exploding — but not necessarily. It’s a function of the composition of the household, which is a big thing going on,” Rathge said.

Rathge explains that a new apartment building may not signal an influx of people coming to town, but rather more options for young people who simply want their own space.

“One of the most dominant households in North Dakota now is single. We’re not really growing in population; it’s simply a difference in composition,” Rathge said.

Growth among young adults

From the early 1980s to 2002, North Dakota lost young adults in rather sizable numbers every year. Because they carry with them the capacity to naturally grow the population, through child-bearing, North Dakota also experienced a continuous decline in birth rates.

“We were hollowing out our population. It was like someone squeezed the center of the population pyramid,” Rathge said. “I thought that would continue, but since 2002 our birth numbers have been going up, and I’m extremely surprised at the 2010 numbers. It was always the concern in our state because we desperately needed young adults. We got our wish.”

Breaking it down, ages 20-24 grew 17 percent, 25-29 grew 28 percent and 30-34 grew 7 percent.

“That’s phenomenal news for North Dakota. It creates a new vibrancy,” Rathge said. “The young adult population is the population that creates change, new attitudes, new ideas and also the potential for growth through children.”

They certainly held up their end of the bargain. North Dakota saw a 13 percent increase in the 0-4 age group. Rathge said the western half of the state is most substantially feeling the effects of those numbers. With only two exceptions, every county in the west half of North Dakota saw an increase in the 25-34 age population. Counties impacted by energy development, including Divide, Williams, Mountrail, and McKenzie, exceeded 43 percent in that same demographic. Correspondingly, the age 0-4 population in those counties also increased.

“As a demographer in the state for three decades, I’ve never seen this,” Rathge said.

But based on those increases, Rathge admits it’s easy to assume the overall population of western counties would have grown, but the census data suggests otherwise.

“This raises questions because of the contradiction,” Rathge said. “We get calls all the time from mayors and auditors saying the numbers are wrong. One has to remember there’s a difference between residential population and the population you see on the ground. The difference is the census asks, ‘Where do you reside?’ Many of those individuals in western North Dakota due to employment opportunities are fairly migratory. They come, and then go back to families. They don’t call North Dakota their residence.”

Expansion in the east and west

In contrast, West Fargo added nearly 73 percent to those who call that city home. They, too, saw a spike in young adult and preschool populations. Among the city’s nearly 26,000 residents, about 2,200 — or nearly 9 percent — were under 5 years old.

While Chuck E. Cheese may be dancing all the way to the bank, community leaders are trying to keep pace with the need for childcare since most of the young adult households are dual income.

“Daycares seem to come and go; we work hard to keep them in our city,” said West Fargo Mayor Rich Mattern. “The key is trying to keep them in order to attract young people so we can continue to grow.”

The knee-high residents won’t stay small for long, though, and Rathge said these numbers signal to those in education to prepare for an influx of students.

“In many areas of North Dakota, districts have declined and consolidated. Now they’re challenged with something very different,” Rathge said.

Jerry Coleman, School Finance Director for the Department of Public Instruction said statewide enrollment this year increased by 1,200 kids. While rural North Dakota is not losing students as quickly as in past years, Coleman said they are still declining. About half of the state’s schools saw a decline in enrollment. The other half is largely represented by school districts in oil country. Coleman said Alexander, a small community located between Williston and Watford City, gained about 30 students this fall taking their enrollment to 63.

“If you’ve got housing in your community, people will move into those towns, at least for the short term,” Coleman said.

The latest census brought plenty of surprise and controversy, but Rathge insists it is still a good litmus test of the health and growth of the state.

“It’s the perfect crystal ball because if you can understand historically the relationships that have changed us in population and in characteristics, you can fairly accurately determine what’s likely to happen in the future,” Rathge said.